The Democrats’ prospects for winning back control of the House this fall have grown increasingly gloomy because of the impact of redistricting and the tightening of the presidential contest, according to a new political analysis.
The highly partisan and creative redistricting by Republicans, as well as some Democratic-controlled state legislatures, weakened or eviscerated many Democratic congressional districts and forced incumbents to either retire, slug it out with another Democrat thrown into their districts, or face annihilation at the polls in November. Moreover, the Democrats’ hopes that they could ride President Obama’s political coattails to regaining control of the House have been dashed as the race between Obama and former Republican Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has greatly tightened in recent weeks, amid growing voter dissatisfaction with the pace of the economic recovery and the mounting long term debt.
Obama and Romney are deadlocked in three key presidential battleground states, according to a new round of NBC-Marist polls released Thursday. In Iowa, the two rivals are tied at 44 percent among registered voters, including those who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate. Ten percent of voters in the Hawkeye State are completely undecided. In Colorado, Obama gets support from 46 percent of registered voters, while Romney gets 45 percent. And in Nevada, the president is at 48 percent and Romney at 46 percent. These three states are all battlegrounds that Obama carried in 2008, but that former Republican president George W. Bush won in 2004.
“The president needs to do very well in November – much better than the polling and modeling indicates now – in order to provide the wave that could allow the Democrats to retake the House,” Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia, told The Fiscal Times today. “House Speaker John Boehner made headlines recently when he suggested that Democrats had a one in three chance to take back the House. That was probably just a fundraising pitch.
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